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Primary supervisor

Daniel Schmidt

Co-supervisors

  • Christoph Bergmeir

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models remain a competitive tool for forecasting low signal-to-noise ratio time series, due to their flexibility, low complexity and physical plausibility. They predict the next observation in a time series as a linear combination of a number of previous observations as well as a number of hidden (latent) random innovations. The AutoARIMA package remains a staple benchmarking tool against which forecasting techniques must be compared. The AutoARIMA package automatically selects the relevant number of past observations to use when forecasting the next observation in a time series, but does so using relatively old and approximate statistical techniques.

Aim/outline

This project will utilise the technique of prior-fitted networks and modern sparsity inducing prior distributions to train up Bayes-optimal ARMA forecasters. This tool will provide both Bayes-optimal forecasts as well as Bayes-optimal parameter estimates to provide interpretable models. The resulting system has the potential to become a standard benchmarking tool for forecasting, particular of low granularity series. 

Required knowledge

Python, experience with deep learning, data science background